Airbus’ Global Market Forecast 2024 (GMF) report projects that the region’s fleet is set to nearly double by 2043, growing from 1.560 to 2.670 aircraft over the next 20 years. Of these new deliveries, 90% will continue to be single-aisle aircraft and 10% will be widebody aircraft.
The expectation is that with the growth of the middle class, which will represent two-thirds of the population by 2043, the demand for air travel will increase, both for leisure and business purposes. In Latin America, an increase of 0.48 trips per capita in 2023 is expected to 0.94 trips per capita in 2043. In Peru, per capita travel rates are expected to double, and in Brazil, Chile and Colombia, the increase is expected to more than double.
The study reveals that domestic and international enger traffic in Latin America is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5,5% through 2027 as a result of the recovery from the pandemic. In the medium and long term, traffic will return to pre-pandemic trends with an annual growth rate of 3,6% between 2028 and 2043.
According to the GMF forecast for Latin America, the region’s fleet age is slightly below the global average. Currently, 37% of enger aircraft in service are next-generation, compared to 30% globally. Latin America is in a renewal phase, resulting in an average fleet age of less than 10 years. The short-term priority for decarbonizing the sector is to replace the remaining 63%, which could result in CO2 savings of around 25% across the Airbus family, compared to previous-generation aircraft.
With the regional fleet set to nearly double by 2043, workforce growth will be critical. The latest Global Services Forecast (GSF) 2024–2043 projects a surge in demand for an additional 136 professionals over the next 20 years, including 46 new technicians, 36 new pilots and 54 new crew. The Latin American commercial aircraft services market is expected to nearly double, with an average annual growth rate of 3,6%.
Airbus has sold more than 1.300 aircraft in Latin America and the Caribbean and is the market leader in commercial aviation. Around 800 aircraft are in operation across the region, with almost 500 in backlog. Since 1994, Airbus has secured 75% of the orders delivered in the region.
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