Brazilians' desire to travel and the different contexts of the pandemic: what can we expect for the end of the year?
Between 2019 and 2020, the Brazil experienced a 57% drop in total flight volume (domestic and international) due to the CODI-19 pandemic. However, mainly due to the progress of the vaccination campaign in the country, the number of flights has increased significantly since March 2021.
For this reason, Decode, the client acquisition and consulting company of the BTG Pactual group, researched the movement in this market and found some data that demonstrate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism and, consequently, on airlines.
In 2019, the demand for domestic flights totaled 97 million, however, in 2020, this number dropped to 45 million, which represents a decrease of 54%. Analyzing the history of engers who demanded flights of this type, we realized that this was the worst result of this type of trip since 2016:
- 2016: 92 million
- 2017: 93 million (1% growth)
- 2018: 95 million (2% growth)
- 2019: 97 million (2% growth)
- 2020: 45 million (54% decrease)
But despite this sharp drop, international flights ended up being even more affected: in 2019, the demand for international flights, which reached 24 million, in 2020 fell to 7 million, which represents a decrease of 71%. It is also the worst result of this type of trip since 2016:
- 2016: 22 million
- 2017: 23 million (5% growth)
- 2018: 24 million (4% growth)
- 2019: 24 million (1% growth)
- 2020: 7 million (71% decrease)
The reasons that led millions of people to stop traveling during the period of 2020 were centered on the general effects of COVID-19 and the fear of contagion, but economic issues also stand out:
Drop on domestic flights:
- Total effect of Covid-19 in the country (reduced by 53% the number of trips)
- Economy (GDP) (reduced by 10% the number of trips)
- Fear of contagion (reduced by 37% the number of trips)
Drop on international flights:
- Total effect of Covid-19 in the country (reduced by 71% the number of trips)
- Economy (GDP) (reduced by 9% the number of trips)
- Fear of contagion / border closures (reduced by 69% the number of trips)
Vaccination of the Brazilian population has helped to change this scenario. After being vaccinated, 70% of Brazilians decided that they will travel as soon as the opportunity arises. Something that was not observed in the same period in 2020, when they stated that they did not intend to travel anytime soon.
Of potential tourists, 25% intend to travel by car, while 45% intend to travel by plane, 26% want to travel within Brazil and 19% want to travel abroad. When we analyze these statistics, we realize that it is no wonder that domestic flights in Brazil recovered 80% of the volume of engers they had before the pandemic.
Something interesting noticed by Decode is that data related to international and domestic flights also reflect inequality in the country, since international flights are much more expensive than domestic flights:
Population earning more than 10 minimum wages:
- 83% want to travel
- 48% plan to travel to Brazil
- 42% intend to leave the country
Population earning up to 3 minimum wages:
- 63% want to travel
- 84% plan to travel to Brazil
- 16% intend to leave the country
One data that confirms the recent increase in the interest of the Brazilian people in traveling is the growth in the volume of hits on the websites of the country's main airlines. By the end of October alone, an increase of 181% is estimated in the volume of hits on the Latam website, while on the Decolar and CVC websites, this increase is estimated at 158% and 131%, respectively.
Despite being more expressive in the month in question, if we go back to the observation period for the previous months, we realize that this growth was already underway:
Accesses on the Latam website:
- Jul/2021: 457.698
- Aug/2021: 524.858 (15% increase)
- Sep/2021: 802.361 (53% increase)
- Until 12/Oct/2021: 873.301 (9% increase)
- *Oct/2021: 2.256.027 (estimated increase until the end of the month: 181%)
Since July/2021, an increase of 393% is estimated in the volume of hits on the Latam website in search of airline tickets.
Accesses on the CVC website:
- Jul/2021: 2.737.302
- Aug/2021: 2.901.704 (increase of +6%)
- Sep/2021: 3.055.258 (5% increase)
- Until 12/Oct/2021: 2.726.060 (11% increase)
- *Oct/2021: 7.042.322 (estimated increase until the end of the month: 131%)
Since July/2021, an increase of 157% is estimated in the volume of hits on the CVC website in search of airline tickets.
Access on the Decolar website:
- Jul/2021: 5.668.411
- Aug/2021: 5.303.264 (6% decrease)
- Sep/2021: 6.079.926 (15% increase)
- Until 12/Oct/2021: 6.317.100 (4% increase)
- *Oct/2021: 16.319.175 (estimated increase until the end of the month: 158%)
Since July/2021, an increase of 188% is estimated in the volume of hits on the Decolar website in search of airline tickets.
In 2020, the main international origins of engers were: United States (22%), Argentina (10%), Chile (9%), (5%) and, finally, Peru (4%). In 2021, little has changed: the United States, Argentina and Chile continue to lead the ranking, now representing 25%, 8% and 7% of international origins, respectively.
Colombia ed the list in fourth place, ing for 5% of international origins, and finally, fell to last place, representing 4% of international origins.
When it comes to the main international destinations. In 2020, they were: United States (15%), Chile (11%), Argentina (10%), Colombia (9%) and Ecuador (6%). In 2021, there were not many changes in the ranking either: in first place, the United States remains (16%, followed by Chile (11%), Colombia (11%) and Argentina (9%) and, finally , we have Ecuador (6%).
Despite all this yearning for travel, Brazilians will still have to deal with and accept some restrictions, brought about by the context of COVID-19, when it comes to international travel:
- 54 countries have light restrictions for Brazilian travelers (only people vaccinated or with a negative PCR test).
- 33 countries have moderate restrictions for Brazilian travelers (quarantine requirement and negative PCR test).
68 countries have strong restrictions for Brazilian travelers (practically closed)
Street: Decode
