The Federal Government presented at the beginning of the National Aviation Plan (PAN) for the year 2018, which details the situation of the current infrastructure in the aviation sector. The report is also a requirement of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regarding the need for countries to structure their actions related to civil aviation.
The document details various growth conditions of our aviation in recent years, and factors that influence its evolution. In the same file we also find the perspective of growth for the coming years, with a somewhat frightening result.
According to the "PAN", our aviation will be operating very close to the limit of airport capacity in 2023, in 2025 the infrastructure will already be at its operational limit.
Investments for the next 20 years total BRL 22,9 billion, which are earmarked for airport infrastructure, in addition to BRL 1,8 billion for aeronautical infrastructure, and BRL 896 million for operational safety.
Analyzing the sources of funds for investments, it is observed that R$ 6,76 billion are provided for in airport concession contracts, while the remaining R$ 18,7 would come from the National Civil Aviation Fund, which has a projected revenue of resources in the order of R$ 143,6 billion, for the next 20 years.
The guidelines issued by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) for the development of global civil aviation are anchored in strategic objectives, of which the following stand out:
• Capacity and Efficiency: Increase the capacity and improve the efficiency of the global civil aviation system, primarily focused on improving the civil aviation infrastructure and developing new procedures to optimize the performance of the aviation system.
• Operational safety: pursue the global improvement of operational safety in civil aviation.
• Economic development of Air Transport: promote the development of an economically viable civil aviation system.
• Environmental Protection: minimize adverse effects on the environment caused by civil aviation activities.
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regional aviation
The document also highlights the heavy investment that will be made in regional airports, as a way of connecting a large part of the small towns with the respective large cities nearby, in order to then create an integrated air network and a quick movement in the national context.
In the worst case scenario, regional airports will receive infrastructure investments in the order of 9,19 billion reais over the next 20 years, and if demand exceeds the projection, the investment could go up to 11,02 billion reais.
The document says: “Airports with low demand and a predominance of travel desires for regional connections require little investment to be certified with operating conditions for smaller aircraft.”
This indicates that there are still markets to explore inland, starting with small aircraft at airports and expanding to larger aircraft in the future, while current airports expect infrastructure expansion to larger aircraft in the next 10 years.
metropolitan airports
The studies carried out in the PAN indicate some airports not granted that, regardless of the projected scenario, would require investments in large infrastructure and complex operation for the next 20 years, requiring in-depth studies to be carried out with alternatives for operation and future investments.
They are: Belém/PA International Airport (SBBE); Santa Genoveva Airport in Goiânia/GO (SBGO); Cataratas Airport in Foz do Iguaçu/PR (SBFI); Navegantes/SC Airport (SBNF); Porto Seguro/BA Airport (SBPS); Santos Dumont Airport in Rio de Janeiro/RJ (SBRJ); and Congonhas Airport in São Paulo (SBSP).
This group of 7 airports needs around BRL 5,5 billion in investments according to PAN estimates, which would represent 36% of the total forecast coming from FNAC. By way of comparison, it should be noted that the other part of the necessary resources from the FNAC, around R$10,7 billion (or 64%), would be enough for investments in infrastructure in 135 airports not granted.
It is worth highlighting the presence of Congonhas Airport, currently the 2nd busiest in Brazil and which receives only regular domestic flights.
According to the Government's projection, the São Paulo terminal should handle 180 million engers in 2038, for comparison, the Airports of Guarulhos, Viracopos and Congonhas ended 2018 with 72 million engers. This points to a massive investment in infrastructure at the airports of Guarulhos and Viracopos, in addition to adapting Congonhas to current standards of comfort.
The São Paulo terminal accumulates 36% of enger traffic throughout Brazil, pointing to this location as a possible bottleneck for the operations of other airports.
The bottleneck would be generated by the terminal runways, even before the terminals saturate, around 2025.
As the image gallery below indicates, Viracopos would be the only airport in a position to accompany the growth of Aviation, in the range of 4,6% nationwide, using the current runway infrastructure established in the concession contract.
In this part the document suggests:
“The consideration of a third runway at the São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) or the construction of a new airport in the São Paulo region are proposals that involve high costs, mainly with expropriations.”
“However, the studies carried out in this PAN indicate that, if they are not adopted, a series of operational measures will be necessary to increase the capacity of the runway systems by 25% in Guarulhos (SBGR), that is, an operation that allows an increase from 60 to at least 75 landings or takeoffs in peak hours.”
Throughout the body of the text there is also a suggestion that part of São Paulo's traffic be diverted to Viracopos Airport, which has better conditions for expansion and currently has an underutilized structure. However, to achieve this naturally, the government also needs to think about quick ways to travel between São Paulo and the metropolitan region, as far as Viracopos.
Investments in airports in the São Paulo region should exceed R$ 3,8 billion over the next 20 years, just for enger terminals, without taking into works on runways, technological systems or aircraft tracking. The terminal area of the three airports should increase from the current 450 m² to 980 m² in 2038, as a way of ing demand.
There is a need for investments in airport infrastructure (airside) of around R$ 1,3 billion in new runways for landings and takeoffs in Viracopos, Guarulhos or in a new airport, without considering the costs with asset acquisition, expropriations and earthworks, in addition to of the planned investments for the second runway in Viracopos. That is, this value will be much higher when we consider the difficulty of building a new runway for an airport.
The document also points out that key airports for National Aviation, such as Brasília and Recife, must be updated together with the TMA São Paulo airports, and adapt in relation to instrument navigation equipment that allows landings and takeoffs in low conditions of visibility.
With the current concessions and the government's position towards greater private investment in the sector, it is possible that this problem will be overcome in the future in a quick and practical way, but companies should always observe the feasibility of the works and carry out a good demand study.
