Embraer has published its Market Outlook 2025, a document with the estimated annual forecast for deliveries of commercial aircraft in the category of up to 150 seats over the next 20 years. The report was released ahead of the Paris Air Show, which takes place next week.
The Market Outlook 2025 estimates that there will be demand for 10.500 new jet and turboprop orders through 2044. The document also provides analysis of global variables and trends in seven regions of the world that impact demand for new aircraft. Statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s Market Outlook for the first time, given the country’s growing importance to commercial aviation.
The document also analyzes demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for enger-to-freighter conversions.
The overall forecast for the number of new aircraft up to 150 seats remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. According to Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, the consistency of the estimate can be related to the longevity of societal trends, the supply chain and the geopolitical scenario that Embraer identified during the pandemic.
“Many of the structural changes triggered by the pandemic have proven to be quite durable five years after its onset. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the shift from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical perspective. Today, as countries and regions seek greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe that mixed fleets that combine smaller and larger narrowbody aircraft are essential for this long-term growth. Mixed fleets provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand network networks and national and regional development objectives,” said Meijer.
Highlights of the Market Outlook for Commercial Aviation over the Next 20 Years – in Numbers
Global enger traffic, measured by revenue enger kilometers (RPK), is expected to grow 3,9% annually through 2044. China will lead among the seven global regions.
RPK Annual Regional Growth Rate Ranking
5.7% China
4.7% Latin America
4.4% Africa
4.4% Middle East
4.1% Asia Pacific
3.1% Europe/CIS
2.4% North America
RPK participation until the end of 2044
39% Asia Pacific
37% Europe + North America
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats
10,500 units
8,720 jets
1,780 turboprops
Market value of all new aircraft
US $ 680 billion
Jet deliveries – 8,720 (% share) – by region
2,680 North America (30.7%)
1,990 Europe/CIS (22.8%)
1,500 China (17.2%)
1,050 Asia-Pacific (12.1%)
770 Latin America (8.8%)
380 Africa (4.4%)
350 Middle East (4.0%)
Turboprop deliveries – 1,780 (% share) – by region
640 Asia-Pacific (36.0%)
280 North America (15.7%)
260 Europe/CIS (14.6%)
220 Africa (12.4%)
200 China (11.2%)
160 Latin America (9.0%)
20 Middle East (1.1%)
For the full Market Outlook 2025, please visit:
https://embraer.imagerelay.com/fl/678e7f8e728c4876824e5b4b18fef43a
