Heads up! This article may contain excerpts from the author's opinion.
With the event China Airshow, which took place last week in Zhuhai, it goes without saying that several aircraft manufacturers are disclosing their growth forecasts for China, which is the aviation market with the highest growth today.
But for forecasts for the next 20 years, western manufacturers already have a variable, the new Chinese aircraft, strongly influenced by the local government and its banks.
Airbus has estimated that China will need 7400 aircraft with capacity ranging from 110 to 650 seats, if a single manufacturer sold this many planes, the total sale value would be 1 TRILLION DOLLARS.
Obviously, this market includes only aircraft marketed by Airbus, here we do not include regional jets, such as the ATR 72.
In a condition 20 years ago, Airbus and Boeing would be responsible for sharing the demand of 1 trillion dollars, but with the new players from China, competition has become fierce, mainly for some reasons that we will list below.
Currently, Chinese companies, partly owned by the state, are offering or developing three planes. The regional ARJ 21, the medium-sized Comac C919, and the CR929, the latter a twin-aisle plane and the same size as a Boeing 787.
The AVIC ARJ 21
The ARJ 21 is a regional aircraft, very similar to the Boeing 717, with an average capacity of 110 engers and configuration with two CF-34 engines, just like Embraer's E-Jet aircraft. It took years to develop this plane, and since 2003 there have been orders for it, only 8 units were manufactured and more than three hundred will still be delivered.
The ARJ 21 is an outdated aircraft, and there is no movement in China to replace this late and poorly built design.
The Comac C919
China is hard at work developing the C919, the country's new jet in the 150 to 170-seat range, featuring next-generation engines and Full-Fly-By-Wire controls.
Initially, this plane was “a step too far”, as the country was not used to developing something of this type and resulted in several delays in the project. With six flight prototypes and more than 4000 hours in the air, the first delivery should only take place in 2021.
In an analysis we can see that Boeing and Airbus are already in the market for new generation single-aisle jets since 2016 and 2017, respectively, when the planes of both companies started their commercial flights, this represents almost 5 years of delay of the Chinese in relation to Western companies, removing from this list the questions about the low rate of production and delivery, something that COMAC will probably suffer at the beginning as well as in the case of ARJ 21.
Altogether there are 305 firm orders for the C919 and 703 more purchase options, which can total 1008 orders in total.
The UAC-COMAC (CRAIC) CR929
The CR929 was presented recently, but like the C919, it is already heavily inspired by new generation aircraft such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, we can see this from the modern mock-up presented during the China Airshow.
In the cockpit we have an arrangement similar to the Airbus A350, in the external part we have a design that resembles the Boeing 787. In of engine and avionics, Comac has already declared that it is seeking a partnership with western companies, GE and Rolls-Royce are finalists for the supply of engines, and they have already stated that they are planning something similar to what we found in the Boeing 787.
As it is a plane built in partnership with Russia, which has greater Know-How with the new generation (at this point the certification of the MC-21 is more advanced compared to the C919), we have information that the CR929 must also incorporate engines of new generation manufactured by Aviadvigatel, probably a version based on the technologies of the PD-14, which will equip the MC-21.
There are currently no orders for the CR929, but we can expect that from 2019 companies in China and Russia will commit to the new jet, which may make its first flight in 2022.
points in common
Considering the orders for the ARJ 21 and the C919, we have one point in common, there are more than 1300 aircraft ordered, mostly (almost 100%) by Chinese companies, or Chinese banks that lease aircraft.
In the government itself there is a large-scale incentive for local banks to finance their own industry, through facilitated conditions for Chinese companies to purchase products manufactured in their own country. There is even a bank dedicated to agriculture renting the latest aircraft.
It is the movement of the domestic market itself, following the pattern of the US economy, creating a market that involves more than 1,3 billion people.
Growth
China's internal (domestic) traffic has quadrupled over the past 10 years, with double-digit growth rates and is expected to become the largest traffic flow in the next 10 years. International traffic on flights departing from or bound for China has nearly doubled in the past 10 years.
According to Airbus demand data, China should have growth of more than 6,3% over the next 20 years, this value of 6,3% is the global average growth for aviation over the next 20 years, already ing for the highest traffic in the Asia region, right where China is located.
In total, China represents 19% of global demand for new aircraft over the next 20 years, and should be the largest aviation market in 2037, suring the United States, which is currently in this position.
At the same time, companies in China are suffering competition from the Airbus Final Assembly Center in China, which from 2020 will be able to produce 8 A320neo family aircraft per month, and from Boeing itself, which wants to open an Assembly and Delivery Center in partnership with Comac.
Furthermore, western companies work hard on new technologies, and are at least 10 years ahead of China in technological development. Boeing plans to debut the NMA on commercial flights by 2025, and Rolls-Royce is already working on the development of a new engine for large aircraft, which uses the Frontal Fan rotation reduction gear technology, enabling 15% fuel consumption. smaller compared to a Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engine that powers the Boeing 787.
Currently, it is possible to infer that this number of orders will probably increase in the coming years, mainly with the entry into service of the C919, which will attract new orders from Chinese airlines, and also the CR929, which will still be launched in 2019 in the context of of new orders, as the project is still in the parameter finalization phase.
