With the resumption of international air travel and the continued recovery in many domestic markets, Boeing estimates that demand will exceed 41 new aircraft by 2041, highlighting the resilience of the aviation sector two years after the start of the pandemic.
The assessment is part of the 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO – Commercial Market Outlook), released before the Farnborough International Airshow and which provides the company's annual long-term forecast.
The CMO forecasts a market value of $7,2 trillion for new aircraft deliveries, with an 80% increase in the global fleet through 2041 compared to pre-pandemic 2019 levels. current models, improving the fuel efficiency and sustainability of the global fleet.
In addition, Boeing Global Services forecasts $3,6 trillion in demand across market segments over the same period, including heavy maintenance and modification needs such as converted freighters; digital solutions that increase efficiency and reduce costs; and training for pilots and technicians.
“Despite unprecedented disruption over the past two years, the aviation industry has shown incredible resilience in adapting to the challenge”, says Ihssane Mounir, senior vice president of global sales and marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Based on our extensive experience in forecasting market trends, the 2022 CMO shows the strong demand for new aircraft and associated services in the coming decades, providing perspective as the industry continues to recover.”
The 2022 CMO includes the following regional projections for the next 20 years:
- Underlining their strong growth history, Asian markets for around 40% of global long-term demand for new aircraft. Europe and North America for just over 20% of demand, and 15% refer to deliveries to other regions.
- The South Asia fleet continues to show the highest global growth at 6,2% per year. Led by India, the region's fleet will nearly quadruple from 700 aircraft in 2019 to over 2.600 aircraft by 2041. Southeast Asia is expected to experience the second fastest growth, with its commercial fleet nearly tripling to reach 4.500 aircraft.
- This year's CMO does not include the forecast for aircraft deliveries to Russia due to sanctions against aircraft exports. This change reduces the 20-year global demand by approximately 1.500 aircraft compared to last year's CMO.
Narrow-body aircraft are expected to total nearly 31 aircraft and will for 75% of all new deliveries – the same rate as last year's CMO.
By 2041, new wide-body aircraft will for around 18% of deliveries with more than 7.230 aircraft, enabling airlines to serve new enger and cargo markets in addition to current ones more efficiently.
The CMO also forecasts continued robust demand for dedicated freighters to global supply chains and growing express networks. Carriers will need an additional 2.800 freighters, including 940 new wide-body models, plus converted narrow-body and wide-body freighters during the forecast period.
|
NEW DELIVERIES (2022-2041) |
|
|
regional jets |
2.120 |
|
narrow-body aircraft |
30.880 |
|
wide body aircraft |
7.230 |
|
freighters |
940 |
|
Total |
41.170 |
Boeing has provided the CMO annually for over 60 years. As the oldest aviation forecast, it is considered the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. View more information about CMO here. In addition, Boeing will release its Forecast for Pilots and Technicians on July 25th.
