In 2024, the dollar ed a significant appreciation of approximately 27% against the real, ending the year quoted at R$6,18.
For 2025, projections indicate that the dollar should remain above R$6, with estimates ranging from R$5,85 to R$6,00 by the end of the year, as reported on the website Value Invest.
Internal factors, such as Brazilian fiscal policy and government credibility, together with external elements, such as the economic policies of the United States under the Donald Trump istration, will influence the currency's price, according to analysts.
It is important to note that while the dollar has risen globally, the real has depreciated more sharply compared to other emerging currencies, reflecting specific concerns about the Brazilian economy.
Finally, the appreciation of the dollar against the real has a significant impact on aviation, especially Brazilian airlines, given that approximately 60% of their operating costs are “dollarized”. These costs include aircraft leasing, maintenance, insurance and, most importantly, aviation fuel (QAV), which s for approximately 40% of operating expenses.
Main Costs Linked to the Dollar
- Aviation Fuel (QAV): The price of QAV is quoted in dollars, making it susceptible to exchange rate fluctuations. Since 2020, the price of QAV has risen by more than 50%, driven by international crises, such as the war in Ukraine, which keeps fuel prices at high levels.
- Aircraft Leasing: Many Brazilian companies use leased aircraft, whose contracts are signed in dollars. The devaluation of the real increases the costs of these contracts, putting even more pressure on the companies' finances.
- Maintenance and Parts: Maintenance services and spare parts, often imported, are also priced in dollars, increasing operating costs during periods when the US currency is strong.
It is also important to note that many Brazilian airlines have debts in dollars. The appreciation of the US currency increases the value of these debts in reais, putting pressure on the financial balance sheet and making it difficult to obtain credit.
Effects on Profitability
The depreciation of the real against the dollar reduces the profit margins of airlines, since their revenues are mostly in reais, while a large part of their costs are in dollars. This discrepancy makes the market highly vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.
Mitigation Strategies
To deal with exchange rate volatility, airlines adopt several strategies, such as:
- Currency Hedge: It consists of financial contracts that fix the exchange rate for future transactions, protecting against unexpected fluctuations.
- Fuel Hedge: Similar to currency hedging, it allows companies to fix the price of fuel, reducing exposure to price variations in the international market.
- Operational Adjustments: They include optimizing routes, improving operational efficiency and renegotiating contracts to reduce expenses.
Impact on Ticket Prices
Increased operating costs resulting from the appreciation of the dollar are generally ed on to consumers in the form of more expensive tickets. Studies indicate that in 2024, airfares reached record levels in Brazil, reflecting the pressure of dollarized costs, which could lead to a possible reduction in enger demand, especially in the leisure and tourism segment, which is more price-sensitive.
The increase in fares also impacts competitiveness on international flights, as foreign operators may have lower costs in their home currencies, especially in competitive markets such as flights to the United States and Europe.
Future perspectives
Despite the challenges, the Brazilian aviation sector is showing signs of post-pandemic recovery, with an increase in the number of engers transported. However, the continuity of this recovery depends on factors such as exchange rate stability, improvements in airport infrastructure and policies that encourage competitiveness in the market.
In any case, forecasts for growth in the number of engers transported in Brazil in 2025 are limited. However, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects a global increase of 8% in air enger demand in 2025, compared to 2024.
For Brazil, the National Aviation Plan (PAN), launched by the Ministry of Transport, Ports and Civil Aviation, indicates that, without investments in infrastructure, the Brazilian airport system will only be able to meet enger demand until 2025.
Although there is no specific data on the percentage growth expected for Brazil in 2025, the Brazilian aviation sector has shown signs of recovery and growth in recent years. In 2023, airlines transported 102,5 million engers in Brazil, approaching the 108 million ed in 2019, before the pandemic.
Aeroflap made a calculation of the projection of engers transported by airlines, taking into ONLY the variation of the dollar, in order to have some comparison, even if simplistic, of what was reported by IATA for the global scenario.
To project the number of engers to be transported monthly by airlines certified under RBAC 121 throughout 2025, we analyzed the correlation between the monthly variation of the dollar and the number of engers transported from January 2022 to October 2024.
Historical Data Analysis (Jan/2022 – Oct/2024):
- Exchange rate: During this period, the dollar showed significant variations in relation to the real, directly influencing the operating costs of airlines, especially in items such as fuel and maintenance, which are quoted in dollars.
- engers Transported: ANAC data indicate fluctuations in the number of engers transported monthly, reflecting both the seasonality of the sector and the economic impacts resulting from exchange rate variations.
A moderate negative correlation was identified between the appreciation of the dollar and the number of engers transported. In other words, months with a significant increase in the dollar tend to show a slight reduction in the number of engers, possibly due to the ing on of costs and the decrease in demand for air tickets.
Finally, considering the historical trend and applying statistical models that incorporate both the observed trend and seasonality, we estimate the following number of engers transported per month in 2025:
- January: 8.500.000
- February: 7.800.000
- March: 8.200.000
- April: 8.000.000
- May: 7.900.000
- June: 8.100.000
- July: 8.600.000
- August: 8.200.000
- September: 8.100.000
- October: 8.400.000
- November: 8.300.000
- December: 8.700.000
However, it is observed:
- Seasonality: The months of January, July and December generally have a higher number of engers due to school holidays and end-of-year celebrations.
- Exchange Rate Variation: Although there is a correlation between the variation of the dollar and the number of engers, other economic and social factors also influence the demand for air travel.
- Economic Uncertainties: Unforeseen economic events, government policies and changes in the international environment can significantly affect these projections.
The above number would represent an increase equivalent to + 1,86 % in relation to the total number of engers transported in 2024 (a projection is calculated for the months of November to December/24, since they were not updated by ANAC in its respective , there is no publication date for this).
The value would be much lower than in previous years, as there was an increase of:
- 21,4% from 2021 to 2022;
- 8,2% from 2022 to 2023;
- 5,4% from 2023 to 2024.
It is clear that in 2021 the sector began its recovery after the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, generating a 21,4% increase in 2022, due to the return of enger confidence and increased demand for travel. In 2023, growth continued, but at a more moderate pace, suggesting market stabilization. In 2024, the estimate points to an increase of 5,4% compared to 2023, indicating continued recovery, albeit at a slower pace.
On the other hand, Embraer projects annual growth of 3,3% through 2040 in revenue enger kilometers (RPK). Although this forecast is long-term, it reflects an expectation of continued growth in the number of engers transported annually.
In short, the appreciation of the dollar significantly impacts the costs of Brazilian airlines, affecting their profitability and the affordability of tickets for consumers. The adoption of effective financial and operational strategies is crucial to mitigate these effects and ensure the sustainability of the sector.
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