Can a country as big as Russia live without a modern and viable aviation and aviation industry? This is a thesis that has never been tested — but it's about to be!
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, with global impacts, affects and will have a huge impact not only on air travel, but also on all technological maintenance and supplies for the aviation park in that region. We will have the imminent increase in air cargo transport prices. The aircraft leasing market has already been hugely impacted. Realize that even the conquest of space can be harmed!
The impacts are still incalculable.
While Ukraine, Moldova and parts of Belarus' airspace have already closed to commercial flights for safety reasons, several airlines have also taken a stance against flying to and through Russia.
Going further, so far all EU member states including Switzerland, Albania, Canada, Iceland, Norway and the UK have banned Russian aircraft from entering their territory and in response Russia has banned all flights from these countries from entering. in your airspace.
Western sanctions are increasingly severe against Russia. And the airline industry, as a result, could soon end up in intensive care: the aviation industry could really collapse in Russia.
The sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union mean, at first glance, that the world's two largest aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, can no longer supply spare parts or provide maintenance to Russian airlines. The same goes for aircraft engine manufacturers.
Rolls-Royce itself, whose UK-based Civil Aerospace business, which manufactures and services jet engines for commercial aircraft, has stopped all activities with its customer Aeroflot (Russia's largest carrier) and with all of Russia , which means they are no longer supplying commercial aircraft engines, maintenance services or spare parts.
In other words, Russian airlines can run out of necessary spare parts in a matter of weeks or fly unmaintained planes often enough to operate safely. Besides, this may affect certificates of airworthiness, which can happen if proper records are not kept, if aircraft are cannibalized for parts.
Aeroflot was also cut off from SABER (the global air ticket sales system) and stopped all international flights on March 8, 2022 – not only because, as mentioned, western governments closed their airspace to Russian planes, but also because leasing companies are trying to get them back. The path is overwhelming, and if sanctions persist, in the short-medium term Russia may no longer have any kind of viable aeronautical industry.
This poses a serious problem for Russia's economic activities. Russia is the largest nation in the world, more than twice the size of the United States – and it needs to have a viable airline industry to keep its economy going.
It can take weeks or months for airlines to run out of spare parts supplies. Airlines can prolong operations by grounding some aircraft and cannibalizing them for spare parts for use on planes that are still flying, although such practices are prohibited under the of leases covering commercial aircraft.
Russia may also have to buy uncertified parts and second-hand planes from sellers in China or elsewhere, as Iran did during its years of sanctions.
But not only that. The economic impact of the war can be felt in the four corners of the planet. For starters, flights originating in Europe or Asia that previously traveled through Russia are being rerouted, which could add hours to travel time. This requires more jet fuel – which not only increases the cost of each flight for the airline, but also reduces the amount of cargo that can be carried on each aircraft due to weight considerations. As an example, we have products transported from Asia to North America and Europe over Russia: now they will have to take the polar route over Anchorage and this will increase time and therefore cost.
The debate is already reaching space: Russia's space agency has sent NASA and other international partners a letter demanding an end to sanctions, saying they could even threaten the International Space Station (ISS). Four NASA astronauts, two Russian cosmonauts and one European astronaut are currently on the space station.
Aircraft leasing companies, which own about 80% of the commercial planes in the Russian fleet, were ordered to recall these planes immediately. This is a sensitive mission due to the possibility of legal challenges and the ban on Russian aircraft flying in European airspace. Under EU sanctions, leasing companies must terminate their contracts with Russian airlines by March 28. Sanctions have taken the industry into uncharted territory: the 2001 Cape Town Convention governs the under which planes are leased and impounded, but it doesn't really plan for wars and sanctions.
The exit? The Russian aviation sector is a major manufacturing force, and despite questionable quality, there are many Russian-made planes in operation across Russia. Russian airlines can use their Russian-made aircraft more widely and rely on Russian companies to provide technical . The change will mean a drop in the quality of air travel and likely technical services, however it would be the solution to total collapse.
Ivan Dilly
Chief Legal Officer & Founder
